Summary Dogecoin has surged 160% in the last month, with potential for further gains as Altseason takes hold and crypto enthusiasm rises. Elon Musk's continued support adds to its appeal despite its speculative nature. Technical analysis suggests DOGE could surpass $1, driven by market sentiment and Fibonacci extensions, though short-term corrections are possible. Despite high volatility and lack of fundamentals, I rate DOGE a buy due to the overall growth potential in Altcoins. Thesis Summary Dogecoin ( DOGE-USD ) has appreciated 160% in the last month, and it seems like the rally could keep going over the next few months as Altseason takes hold. The appeal to investing in DOGE continues to be based purely on speculation and narrative, but that doesn't mean we can't make rational and measured trading decisions. With a crypto-friendly president taking over in 2025, Elon Musk, "the Dogefather" positioned to exert some influence in the new administration, and overall crypto enthusiasm beginning to take hold, I think it's still a good time to buy DOGE. Based on previous highs, DOGE could break above $1 in the coming year, though holders should have a clear plan in place to take profits or reduce potential losses. Is DOGE Coin Still Relevant? The short answer is yes. Although it has been a few years since the DOGE price topped and it became a household name, the cryptocurrency holds a special place in the crypto market, and it has the right ingredients to stage a strong rally. For starters, Elon Musk continues to be a DOGE evangelist and it is no coincidence that he is now running the Department Of Government Efficiency. Musk's interest in DOGE has not waned, and he continues to engage with the community on Twitter. Elon Musk Tweet (X) It has even been speculated that DOGE could become part of X's new payment system , though there's no evidence to back this up. If we look at interest over time, we can see that interest in DOGE sparked again after the elections. DOGE Search Activity (Google Trends) With that said, we have yet to reach the levels seen in 2021. DOGE; On-Chain Metrics The recent price surge in DOGE can also be backed by increased whale activity. DOGE Whale Activity (Santiment) Large holders of DOGE have been active in the last few months, and this is the kind of activity we saw ahead of the big rally in 2021. On top of that, as was pointed out by Musk in the Tweet above, DOGE is programmed to become less inflationary over time, which means it's actually designed to hold its value somewhat. DOGE Inflation (X) In reality, it's unlikely that DOGE will become anything more than a meme, but that doesn't mean we can't benefit from the coming rally. Chart and Technical Analysis There are a couple of important charts we need to look at now. Firstly, the TOTAL3 chart, which measures the market cap of the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. TOTAL3 (TradingView) In other words, this measures the relative performance of Altcoins. As we can see, this chart finally broke above its 2021 high of $1.2T, showing a shift in sentiment as we enter 2025. Furthermore, according to data from Into The Block , BTC and DOGE have a correlation coefficient of 0.98, which means where BTC goes, DOGE will go. Now, with that said, let's see how high DOGE could go. DOGE TA (TrendSpider) By measuring the decline from the 2021 highs, we can look at the Fibonacci extensions. The most relevant of which is the golden ratio, 61.8%. The 1.618 ext of the decline projects us towards $1.17 in the DOGE price. I believe this area will act like a magnet, although we could reverse it a little bit sooner. However, the $1 level is an important psychological threshold, and it makes sense that we would surpass previous highs in DOGE as the overall market cap for crypto increases. DOGE TA 4h Chart (TrendSpider) If we zoom into the 4h chart, however, it is true that we are looking toppy. We have built a large bearish divergence in the RSI and the MACD has flipped negative. I think we could see DOGE re-test some key levels, such as the 50-day EMA, or even as low as the 200 EMA. I'd consider adding a bit at the $0.32 level, where we also have some important fib confluence. Risks Although there's an upside to DOGE, in my opinion, this is a highly volatile asset, that is really not backed by much in terms of fundamentals. Even with Musk's support, there's no real development team behind the coin or any real-world applications. Takeaway All in all, I rate DOGE a buy because I believe Altcoins in general still have room to grow. This is probably not the best Altcoin out there, but it can still deliver substantial returns as the crypto hype continues.
