Twin Peaks: Comparing The Two 2021 Bitcoin Tops

Speculation has been going on in the crypto community as to whether the $69k Bitcoin top was the peak of this bull run. Here’s a comparison between some indicators to see how this top compares with the $65k April peak. Comparing the Metrics Between The Nov 10th And April 14th Peaks As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, most of the sentiment measuring metrics highlight the differences between the two tops. The first relevant metric is the futures open interest indicator, which shows the total amount of Bitcoin involved in futures contracts at the end of a trading day. Here is how its chart compares between the April and November peaks: Looks like April 14th top had decently more open interest As you can see above, the April peak had almost 50k BTC more in open interest. This means that there was much more excess leverage in the market back then. Related Reading | Brace For More Downtrend: 15% Of Bitcoin Supply Is Now In Loss Below is another chart that compares the unregulated futures basis between the two tops. “Basis” is basically the difference between Bitcoin’s price and the futures price. Average 3-month annualized basis in the unregulated futures market The unregulated futures market basis reached almost 50% on April 14th while it was only 17% during November 10th. The basis gap between the unregulated market and CME was also higher for the former top, and so was the Korean pre...